I’ve a keen interest in several things related to Afghanistan at this point:
1) Getting Americans and Westerners out
2) Understanding what the next decade looks like
3) Maintaining pressure on the Taliban in ways that prevent the expansion of the Caliphate (I worry about the Global Caliphate, NOT the Emirate).
So, how do we accomplish these things without further entangling ourselves, wasting money, and sending another generation of young men off to fight for the Military Industrial Complex? A few things could happen that allow this to move forward.
GETTING AMERICANS AND WESTERNERS OUT
First, I have hope that China seeks to take full advantage of our failed withdrawal, and works to humiliate our government on the world stage. Russia could make this same move, but I find it even more doubtful, so I’ll stick to hoping it plays out with China as Xi is as ambitious as ever. Now, this doesn’t sound very American of me, I know. But hear me out.
If the Chinese government in Afghanistan were smart, they’d secure safe passage agreements for all Americans and Westerners that are left behind at the moment. By making this agreement with the Taliban, they would come across as a great negotiator, and put themselves at the table early as the Taliban is still forming its own government. This would provide China with immense leverage both within Afghanistan, and on the world stage when dealing with the West. It would be a masterstroke in international diplomacy, and would come across as the type of powerful, benevolent action that only the true leader of the world could make.
This would forcibly shift some of the international distrust that has further developed since the COVID outbreak away from the CCP. Western governments would be forced to admit that it was China who did what they could not, that China was able to successfully step in where the Imperial US War machine and NATO failed in tending to their own citizens. Even the saved Americans would be forced to acknowledge that Beijing was able to do the impossible and save them after our own government left them behind. Those of us at home would be forced to admit and come to the realization that it was the CCP that did what our own government could not. It would provide an awakening moment, perhaps, for many that view the American Beltway Establishment as some all powerful force on the world stage. And it may even force those within the establishment to reassess and take stake of the reality of our current condition.
This type of moment would cause mental chaos at home, and create mayhem in the West in terms of peoples opinions, mindsets, and sentiment. As well, such a success would exaggerate the already tense relationship we have in the US with our fellow citizens over left vs right, Democrat vs Republican, Vaxx vs Unvaxx, Capitalism vs Communism. The whole dynamic would be upturned and people would be forced into an uncomfortable position. All of this is a win for Beijing. The American government would be on the ropes if Xi were to take this moment for himself and the glory of the Chinese Communist Party.
This would be one of those moments that shifts the international political landscape in such a way that the US government may actually never recover at home, or abroad. The same would go for many foreign Western governments as what little confidence is left may collapse, though undoubtedly the biggest shift would be in the US as people would realize the extreme GDP we spend on military each year is all for nothing at this point. A reevaluation at home would begin in earnest.
And furthermore, I see Xi unable to pass this moment up if he can figure out how to bring the Taliban to the table for such an agreement because nothing would suit the Chinese Communist Party more than American History books having to explain that it was the CCP who saved the Americans left behind by the American Military and Political Leadership. And should the State Department or Admin try to stop such a deal from taking place or act carried out to save Americans, some form of political revolution at home would be certain. Imagine what people would do when they found out that the government that failed to bring its people home, then fought to prevent them from getting home with the help of a foreign government. Such a thing would be total disaster, and something I don’t think even our government has the stomach for. If Beijing takes the step, our people get home!
The great win for us would be that we got our people home. Bringing the Americans home alive, by whatever means necessary is something we should be concentrated on. Currently, they seem to be forgotten by our political machine that is either too busy trying to make partners out of Medieval Sunni Jihadists, or abusing the rights of citizens at home through regressive Fascist Health Policies and declarations of Domestic Terrorism targeting phantoms and ghosts that never were.
UNDERSTANDING WHAT THE NEXT DECADE LOOKS LIKE
At this point, the American government is still pushing the narrative that the US, EU, and NATO partners will have economic leverage over the Taliban so that good faith negotiations can move forward on a variety of fronts. This is fundamentally false.
Economic determinism does not trump religious radicalism in this case. The Taliban, Haqqani, the Caliphate, and the various other Jihadi groups operating on the ground don’t always see eye to eye. In fact, they war with one another quite often if there isn’t a western target. So, to think that our money will prevent some of these groups from blowing themselves up to kill infidels is quite comical. Our money is not the driving force our leadership thinks it is.
Secondly, there are a variety of other economic outlets, both local and regional, to which they can interact and that we can not stop. The Taliban government and the Jihadi groups operating on the ground will have economic independence from the West and in turn will grow on their own terms. It’s simply a reality. Pakistan, China, Qatar, Iran, and Russia will all have a chance to do business with the Taliban, and they will.
Further, the fear of collapse and a new vacuum forming in the region is very real for those still in the region. The Pakistani National Security Advisor, Moeed Yusuf, warned of “a security vacuum filled with undesirable elements who will threaten everyone, Pakistan and the West”. This leads us to a question we can not yet answer, which is worse: A Taliban run state, or a failed state with no government at all?
There is a provisional deal in place with Turkey and Qatar to run Hamid Karzai International Airport (HKIA). Qatar has an especially nice relationship with the Taliban, various Jihadi groups, and extremely deep pockets.
As the problems between the Emirate (Taliban) and the Caliphate (Islamic State) unfold in the coming years, Qatar may be the sold party able to keep warring factions at bay, at least in and around Kabul and other regional Capitals. They’ll also likely be one of the biggest, if not THE biggest, resource for infrastructure management throughout the country. Outlying regions and far-flung ranges will certainly be areas of frequent dispute between the numerous on the ground factions, but the urban areas will have some level of management. China’s Belt and Road initiative will have to deal with whatever comes.
What we in the West have failed to realize, and those in our foreign policy establishment will continue to fail to realize is that the Taliban doesn’t want what you and I know as a modern Nation-State. What they want, and what they are going to be instituting is a Medieval Theocratic Principality that is but a portion of the greater Umma.
That the Emirate see’s itself as a potential smaller vassal to the greater Caliphate should it be able to rise again, which is the Medieval Sunni Jihad vision, is worthy of note. While these groups are all happy to fight each other as power and honor demands, they don’t hate one another as they do infidels, apostates, or murtad. And, they don’t necessarily see each others wives or goods as ghanima.
If Qatar (with Turkey or Pakistan’s help) is able to maintain infrastructural stability for the Taliban in Kabul and other regional capitals, we may see the Caliphate restrict itself to lesser regions and focus on expansion elsewhere, utilizing rural and remote regions of Afghanistan as areas for consolidation, training, planning, and development. Should the Taliban maintain stable society in the urban pockets and outposts, the Caliphate will seek to expand across MENA, the “Stans”, as well as Africa and South East Asia.
My expectation is that as Western governments spend the next decade abusing those at home through the Huxleyan Fever Dream we find ourselves in at current, that Islamic Extremism will rise worldwide. Our botched withdrawal did us no favors, and while it is good to be out, these groups now have more arms, munitions, decades of real world combat experience and nothing but time and money on their hands making the ride to 2030 quite bumpy.
MAINTAINING PRESSURE
In an effort to maintain pressure on the force of global jihad, we need an immediate counter that would work in our favor in an immense way that requires little of our blood, sweat, and treasure. And we have such a tool in the Terrorist Watch List, but it isn’t what you think. It wouldn’t be adding anyone or group. It would be taking one off.
If we took the Liwa Fatemiyoun off the list of known terrorist organizations this could allow Iran to single handedly keep the Taliban, Caliphate, various factions, as well as China at bay for years, and this would cost the US taxpayer $0.00 + the cost of the paperwork. In taking them off the list Iran could deploy them and allow them to operate without fear of US or NATO drone strikes or other forms of military attack.
So, who are the Liwa Fatemiyoun? They are a military force organized, equipped, and trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC). Iran has the money, experience, will, and political necessity to moderate the actions of all these groups who are now, or soon to be, operating on its border and within its region of influence. This also allows Iran extra regional influence it may otherwise not have when dealing with China, and leverage is always good.
Iran can deploy the Fatemiyoun Brigade, an irregular fighting force drawn from the nearly 300,000 Afghan refugees displaced from decades of conflict in short order throughout Afghanistan to combat any group they wish. The Fatemiyoun Brigade, also known as Hezbollah Afghanistan, as it has apparently been trained along the lines of the Iran backed Lebanese Hezbollah - operated quiet successfully against the Islamic state and other radical groups in Syria for years. It has been reported that Liwa Fatemiyoun lost around 2,000 fighters and 8,000 wounded in the Syrian theater by 2017 alone.
With this simple act of taking the Liwa Fatemiyoun off of the terror watch list, and coupling it with slow walking any and all US-Qatari, US-Pakistani relations we could do more for the cost of almost nothing than we have in the past 20 years where we wasted $2 Trillion dollars and thousands of American lives.
In doing this, we would not only keep the Emirate off balance, but reduce and slow the Caliphates presence and capabilities, as well. China, who has fair public political relations with Iran, knows that back street proxy wars are a part of any international work in Afghanistan or troubled region. As China is a true extra regional player in this area, Iran wont work to its own detriment on its own border just to please Xi and Beijing. Remember, this is a Brigade of Afghans and any number are likely already deployed to remote areas waiting for orders.
As Iran dislikes the Caliphate which will undoubtedly grow under a stable Taliban, creating instability lessens that growth and capability on their own border. Iran will have no problem sewing dissent and trouble into remote regions of Afghanistan if it means it keeps their borders secure from Islamic Jihadi elements they do not trust nor want in their Kingdom. And because this is a proxy force of Afghans, there is little threat of loss of life for Iranians which makes it all the more reasonable for the Mullahs to execute such a plan. As well, as a proxy force the Mullahs can disavow, cut funding, recall, more or realign such a force as is necessary to gain the needed political leverage, or as a result of a political deal with any and all other regional and extra regional players.
This is the cheapest, safest option for an Iran who see’s themselves at the bottom of an influence pile between the Chinese, Qatari, and Pakistani governments making deals in Afghanistan. It allows Iran to determine its own level of influence on the Taliban, the growth or demise of the Caliphate, the larger Afg/Pak and MENA regions, as well as in dealings with China.
Regarding China specifically, what better way to secure increased funding, better deals, and wield more influence than inserting proxy chaos that you alone have the ability to control and at a moments notice can order out of the fight to bring stability to a region, city, or range. As well, anything the ISI or China does in the region that Iran disagrees with or they think could be made better for themselves could be fundamentally altered by using this proxy stick without disrupting front stage international politics as a Regular IRGC force would.
Back alley politics are always a gamble, but Iran could make this happen. In reducing Taliban stability, they reduce the growth of the Caliphate and global jihad which over the next decade will grow to re-threaten American and Western shores. By altering the list of Terror Organizations, we could do little to great effect.
Cultural Husbandry, 1776/2021